Geopolitics

US strikes Iran by...?

February 1

<1%

February 2

February 1

<1%

February 2

$152m Vol.

Monthly

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

$28m Vol.

Monthly

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 2026

<1%

February 1

<1%

January 2026

<1%

February 1

<1%

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

21%

chance

$9m Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

12%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

February 15

23%

February 28

34%

February 15

23%

February 28

34%

$10m Vol.

Will the US not strike another country before 2027?

<1%

chance

$5m Vol.

Monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

11%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

86%

Iran

Somalia

86%

Iran

$514k Vol.

Monthly

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

February 2

69%

February 3

64%

February 2

69%

February 3

64%

$181k Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

31%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

48%

chance

$2m Vol.

Daily

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

February 1

February 2

31%

February 1

February 2

31%

$130k Vol.

Daily

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 31

<1%

February 28

29%

January 31

<1%

February 28

29%

$1m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

34%

chance

$4m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

43%

chance

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

31%

chance

$263k Vol.

Monthly

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

17%

June 30

24%

March 31

17%

June 30

24%

$503k Vol.

Weekly

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

80%

chance

$506k Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

22%

chance

$1m Vol.

Monthly

Middle East Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics