Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? card icon

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

12%

chance

$26m Vol.

Monthly
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? card icon

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

13%

chance

$8m Vol.

Monthly
US strike on Mexico by...? card icon

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31

<1%

March 31

11%

January 31

<1%

March 31

11%

$2m Vol.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? card icon

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

17%

June 30

24%

March 31

17%

June 30

24%

$503k Vol.

Weekly
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31? card icon

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Russia

23%

Ukraine

17%

Russia

23%

Ukraine

17%

$627k Vol.

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026? card icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

3

2%

4

6%

3

2%

4

6%

$175k Vol.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...? card icon

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

February 4

1%

June 30

20%

February 4

1%

June 30

20%

$530k Vol.

Ukraine election held by...? card icon

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

8%

December 31, 2026

34%

June 30, 2026

8%

December 31, 2026

34%

$2m Vol.

Ukraine election called by...? card icon

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

7%

June 30, 2026

18%

March 31, 2026

7%

June 30, 2026

18%

$1m Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? card icon

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

48%

chance

$17k Vol.

Monthly