US strikes Iran by...?
$217,256,022 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
February 10
$2,032,902 Vol.
1%
February 11
$376,438 Vol.
1%
February 12
$178,269 Vol.
2%
February 13
$7,153,091 Vol.
6%
February 20
$1,602,998 Vol.
14%
February 28
$11,652,295 Vol.
22%
March 31
$7,422,077 Vol.
41%
June 30
$4,061,880 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 9, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$217,256,022End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Feb 9, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes Iran by...?
$217,256,022 Vol.
February 10
$2,032,902 Vol.
1%
February 11
$376,438 Vol.
1%
February 12
$178,269 Vol.
2%
February 13
$7,153,091 Vol.
6%
February 20
$1,602,998 Vol.
14%
February 28
$11,652,295 Vol.
22%
March 31
$7,422,077 Vol.
41%
June 30
$4,061,880 Vol.
55%
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