Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

No strike by February 28 66%

February 28 2.8%

February 7 2.4%

February 6 2.4%

$2,813,038 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,813,038
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

No strike by February 28 66%

February 28 2.8%

February 7 2.4%

February 6 2.4%

$2,813,038 Vol.

January 2026

$177,569 Vol.

<1%

February 1

$567,554 Vol.

1%

February 2

$118,771 Vol.

1%

February 3

$89,910 Vol.

2%

February 4

$90,399 Vol.

2%

February 5

$78,766 Vol.

1%

February 6

$85,250 Vol.

2%

February 7

$61,288 Vol.

2%

February 8

$61,433 Vol.

1%

February 9

$58,775 Vol.

1%

February 10

$58,811 Vol.

1%

February 11

$55,537 Vol.

1%

February 12

$53,652 Vol.

2%

February 13

$55,904 Vol.

2%

February 14

$69,934 Vol.

2%

February 15

$73,468 Vol.

1%

February 16

$65,724 Vol.

1%

February 17

$75,182 Vol.

1%

February 18

$69,512 Vol.

1%

February 19

$68,034 Vol.

1%

February 20

$59,049 Vol.

1%

February 21

$64,264 Vol.

2%

February 22

$74,213 Vol.

1%

February 23

$72,902 Vol.

1%

February 24

$71,213 Vol.

1%

February 25

$76,351 Vol.

1%

February 26

$84,531 Vol.

1%

February 27

$81,362 Vol.

2%

February 28

$89,288 Vol.

3%

No strike by February 28

$104,391 Vol.

66%

About

Volume
$2,813,038
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.