US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 43%
January 2026 11%
February 1 7.5%
February 14 4.1%
$784,719 Vol.
$784,719 Vol.
January 2026
$41,917 Vol.
11%
January 2026
$41,917 Vol.
11%
February 1
$50,479 Vol.
8%
February 1
$50,479 Vol.
8%
February 2
$24,560 Vol.
3%
February 2
$24,560 Vol.
3%
February 3
$26,289 Vol.
2%
February 3
$26,289 Vol.
2%
February 4
$30,389 Vol.
2%
February 4
$30,389 Vol.
2%
February 5
$26,381 Vol.
1%
February 5
$26,381 Vol.
1%
February 6
$38,893 Vol.
3%
February 6
$38,893 Vol.
3%
February 7
$22,743 Vol.
3%
February 7
$22,743 Vol.
3%
February 8
$23,034 Vol.
2%
February 8
$23,034 Vol.
2%
February 9
$23,254 Vol.
2%
February 9
$23,254 Vol.
2%
February 10
$22,830 Vol.
1%
February 10
$22,830 Vol.
1%
February 11
$20,150 Vol.
1%
February 11
$20,150 Vol.
1%
February 12
$23,696 Vol.
2%
February 12
$23,696 Vol.
2%
February 13
$22,904 Vol.
2%
February 13
$22,904 Vol.
2%
February 14
$24,575 Vol.
4%
February 14
$24,575 Vol.
4%
February 15
$24,246 Vol.
1%
February 15
$24,246 Vol.
1%
February 16
$21,549 Vol.
1%
February 16
$21,549 Vol.
1%
February 17
$21,859 Vol.
1%
February 17
$21,859 Vol.
1%
February 18
$22,066 Vol.
1%
February 18
$22,066 Vol.
1%
February 19
$18,419 Vol.
1%
February 19
$18,419 Vol.
1%
February 20
$20,978 Vol.
1%
February 20
$20,978 Vol.
1%
February 21
$21,668 Vol.
2%
February 21
$21,668 Vol.
2%
February 22
$24,375 Vol.
2%
February 22
$24,375 Vol.
2%
February 23
$22,124 Vol.
1%
February 23
$22,124 Vol.
1%
February 24
$23,469 Vol.
1%
February 24
$23,469 Vol.
1%
February 25
$28,533 Vol.
1%
February 25
$28,533 Vol.
1%
February 26
$26,082 Vol.
1%
February 26
$26,082 Vol.
1%
February 27
$29,515 Vol.
1%
February 27
$29,515 Vol.
1%
February 28
$22,058 Vol.
1%
February 28
$22,058 Vol.
1%
No strike by February 28
$35,684 Vol.
43%
No strike by February 28
$35,684 Vol.
43%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 43%
January 2026 11%
February 1 7.5%
February 14 4.1%
$784,719 Vol.
$784,719 Vol.
January 2026
11%
February 1
8%
February 2
3%
February 3
2%
February 4
2%
February 5
1%
February 6
3%
February 7
3%
February 8
2%
February 9
2%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
2%
February 13
2%
February 14
4%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
2%
February 22
2%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
1%
February 28
1%
No strike by February 28
43%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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