Geopolitics

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

February 2

69%

February 3

64%

February 2

69%

February 3

64%

$181k Vol.

Daily

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

February 1

February 2

31%

February 1

February 2

31%

$130k Vol.

Daily

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

43%

chance

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

32%

chance

$263k Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

56%

chance

$323k Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

March 31, 2026

34%

June 30

49%

March 31, 2026

34%

June 30

49%

$2m Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Russia

23%

Ukraine

17%

Russia

23%

Ukraine

17%

$627k Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?

12%

chance

$253k Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?

57%

chance

$110k Vol.

Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?

chance

NEW

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

chance

$62k Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

27%

February 28, 2026

16%

March 31, 2026

27%

February 28, 2026

16%

$1m Vol.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? card icon

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31?

11%

chance

$111k Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28?

chance

$15k Vol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

March 31

17%

June 30

43%

March 31

17%

June 30

43%

$4m Vol.

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

24%

chance

NEW

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

June 30

32%

December 31

45%

June 30

32%

December 31

45%

NEW

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

79%

chance

$11k Vol.

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

20%

chance

NEW

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland

41%

Azerbaijan

32%

Somaliland

41%

Azerbaijan

32%

$153k Vol.

Gaza Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics