Grok 4.20 released on...?
February 2 49%
February 5 49%
February 7 49%
February 9 49%
Released before February 1
$0 Vol.
24%
Released before February 1
$0 Vol.
24%
February 1
$0 Vol.
45%
February 1
$0 Vol.
45%
February 2
$0 Vol.
49%
February 2
$0 Vol.
49%
February 3
$0 Vol.
47%
February 3
$0 Vol.
47%
February 4
$0 Vol.
45%
February 4
$0 Vol.
45%
February 5
$0 Vol.
49%
February 5
$0 Vol.
49%
February 6
$0 Vol.
37%
February 6
$0 Vol.
37%
February 7
$0 Vol.
49%
February 7
$0 Vol.
49%
February 8
$0 Vol.
45%
February 8
$0 Vol.
45%
February 9
$0 Vol.
49%
February 9
$0 Vol.
49%
February 10
$0 Vol.
49%
February 10
$0 Vol.
49%
February 11
$0 Vol.
47%
February 11
$0 Vol.
47%
February 12
$0 Vol.
46%
February 12
$0 Vol.
46%
February 13
$0 Vol.
49%
February 13
$0 Vol.
49%
February 14
$0 Vol.
49%
February 14
$0 Vol.
49%
No release by February 14
$0 Vol.
45%
No release by February 14
$0 Vol.
45%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 28, 2026, 10:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Grok 4.20 released on...?
February 2 49%
February 5 49%
February 7 49%
February 9 49%
Released before February 1
24%
February 1
45%
February 2
49%
February 3
47%
February 4
45%
February 5
49%
February 6
37%
February 7
49%
February 8
45%
February 9
49%
February 10
49%
February 11
47%
February 12
46%
February 13
49%
February 14
49%
No release by February 14
45%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.