Market icon

Which company has the best AI model end of January?

$420,490 Vol.

Google 90%

xAI 7.7%

OpenAI 1.2%

Anthropic <1%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$420,490
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 2, 2025, 11:02 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.

$420,490 Vol.

Market icon

Which company has the best AI model end of January?

Google 90%

xAI 7.7%

OpenAI 1.2%

Anthropic <1%

OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Market icon

Google

$51,237 Vol.

90%

Market icon

xAI

$41,038 Vol.

8%

Market icon

OpenAI

$37,126 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Anthropic

$37,718 Vol.

1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$36,779 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$36,304 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$30,838 Vol.

<1%

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Mistral

$33,947 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Baidu

$37,720 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$35,597 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$42,503 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$420,490
End Date
Jan 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 2, 2025, 11:02 PM UTC
shield

Beware of external links.