Trump Presidency Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarke...

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Trump Presidency

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$302m Vol.

$6m today

$14m Liq.

905

Ends in 11 months

93%

Kevin Warsh

$302m Vol.

$6m today

$14m Liq.

905

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Trump Presidency

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$12m Vol.

$278k today

$300k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

16%

$12m Vol.

$278k today

$300k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

When will Congress pass the next funding bill?

Trump Presidency

When will Congress pass the next funding bill?

$411k Vol.

$173k today

$71.9k Liq.

13

Ends in about 18 hours

95%

No Bill passed by Jan 31

$411k Vol.

$173k today

$71.9k Liq.

13

Ends in about 18 hours

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$13m Vol.

$73.4k today

$140k Liq.

1,198

Ends in about 2 months

12%

December 31

$13m Vol.

$73.4k today

$140k Liq.

1,198

Ends in about 2 months

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

$4m Vol.

$56.8k today

$111k Liq.

333

Ends in 29 days

77%

<$100b

$4m Vol.

$56.8k today

$111k Liq.

333

Ends in 29 days

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Trump Presidency

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

$2m Vol.

$56.0k today

$183k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

40%

Kristi Noem

$2m Vol.

$56.0k today

$183k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Trump Presidency

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4m Vol.

$62.1k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

31%

$4m Vol.

$62.1k Liq.

301

Ends in 11 months

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

Trump Presidency

How many people will Trump deport in 2025?

$5m Vol.

$63.4k Liq.

86%

250-500k

$5m Vol.

$63.4k Liq.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Trump Presidency

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$2m Vol.

$33.8k Liq.

369

52%

June 30

$2m Vol.

$33.8k Liq.

369

Will Congress pass a funding bill by...?

Trump Presidency

Will Congress pass a funding bill by...?

$66.2k Vol.

$7.9k Liq.

1

2%

January 30

$66.2k Vol.

$7.9k Liq.

1

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

Trump Presidency

US forces enter Venezuela again by...?

$1m Vol.

$29.0k Liq.

Ends in about 18 hours

23%

June 30

$1m Vol.

$29.0k Liq.

Ends in about 18 hours

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Trump Presidency

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

$380k Vol.

$33.3k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

15%

$380k Vol.

$33.3k Liq.

22

Ends in 11 months

Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Trump Presidency

Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

$211k Vol.

$70.6k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

77%

Stephen Colbert

$211k Vol.

$70.6k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US x Russia military clash by...?

Trump Presidency

US x Russia military clash by...?

$543k Vol.

$29.8k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

9%

December 31, 2026

$543k Vol.

$29.8k Liq.

13

Ends in 11 months

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

$1m Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

40

Ends in 29 days

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

2%

$1m Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

40

Ends in 29 days

Asked by

Jason Calacanis

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Trump Presidency

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$85.6k Vol.

$39.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

10%

December 31

$85.6k Vol.

$39.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump visit China by...?

Trump Presidency

Will Trump visit China by...?

$987k Vol.

$17.3k Liq.

33

Ends in 3 months

80%

April 30, 2026

$987k Vol.

$17.3k Liq.

33

Ends in 3 months

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Trump Presidency

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

$937k Vol.

$17.0k Liq.

32

Ends in 11 months

19%

December 31

$937k Vol.

$17.0k Liq.

32

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Trump Presidency

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$2m Vol.

$10.4k Liq.

117

8%

June 30, 2026

$2m Vol.

$10.4k Liq.

117

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

Trump Presidency

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

$144k Vol.

$11.7k Liq.

1

Ends in 29 days

1%

$144k Vol.

$11.7k Liq.

1

Ends in 29 days

Sort by

Event Status