Jerome Powell predictions & odds

·
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

35%

Rick Rieder

$281m Vol.

$7m today

$7m Liq.

832

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Fed decision in March?

91%

No change

$9m Vol.

$4m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Jerome Powell

Finance

Fed rate cut by...?

68%

June Meeting

$659k Vol.

$52.9k today

$63.2k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Jerome Powell

Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

25%

3 (75 bps)

$4m Vol.

$812k Liq.

31

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Fed decision in April?

75%

No change

$997k Vol.

$400k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

8%

May 14

$737k Vol.

$109k Liq.

28

Ends in 3 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Jerome Powell

Politics

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

89%

↓ 3.25%

$519k Vol.

$186k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Jerome Powell

Fed

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

66%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$48.1k Vol.

$66.2k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?

1%

$133k Vol.

$25.8k Liq.

2

Ends in 1 day

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Jerome Powell

Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

$29.0k Vol.

$11.4k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

Jerome Powell

Politics

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

100%

No change

$9.8k Vol.

$5.7k Liq.

1

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

1%

January 31

$28.5k Vol.

$4.6k Liq.

1

Ends in 1 day

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

67%

December 31

$73.8k Vol.

$10.9k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Fed Decision in June?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Fed Decision in June?

54%

25 bps decrease

$8.5k Vol.

$265k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Jerome Powell

Trump

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

13%

$35.0k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

2

Ends in 1 day

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Jerome Powell

Politics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

29%

3.0%

$81.2k Vol.

$193k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell

Politics

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

10%

$137k Vol.

$17.0k Liq.

33

Ends in 5 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Jerome Powell

Finance

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

23%

4.4%

$66.3k Vol.

$23.0k Liq.

7

Ends in 2 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

Jerome Powell

Politics

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

93%

$5.6k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

Jerome Powell

Politics

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

14%

$2.2k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

Ends in 30 days