Foreign Policy predictions & odds

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

$23m Vol.

$660k today

$195k Liq.

Ends in 2 days

<1%

$23m Vol.

$660k today

$195k Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

$711k Vol.

$160k today

$272k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

7%

$711k Vol.

$160k today

$272k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$12m Vol.

$133k today

$368k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

15%

$12m Vol.

$133k today

$368k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$127k today

$304k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

47%

$8m Vol.

$127k today

$304k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$26m Vol.

$110k today

$758k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

12%

$26m Vol.

$110k today

$758k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$77.4k today

$442k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

13%

$8m Vol.

$77.4k today

$442k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

$303k Vol.

$54.9k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

27%

$303k Vol.

$54.9k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

US strike on Mexico by...?

Foreign Policy

US strike on Mexico by...?

$2m Vol.

$45.1k Liq.

116

Ends in 11 months

24%

December 31

$2m Vol.

$45.1k Liq.

116

Ends in 11 months

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

$309k Vol.

$50.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

27%

December 31

$309k Vol.

$50.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

$566k Vol.

$93.5k Liq.

117

Ends in 2 months

30%

Russia

$566k Vol.

$93.5k Liq.

117

Ends in 2 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Foreign Policy

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$633k Vol.

$45.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

18%

$633k Vol.

$45.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

$200k Vol.

$15.3k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

16%

$200k Vol.

$15.3k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

$2m Vol.

$69.8k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

2%

$2m Vol.

$69.8k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

$83.5k Vol.

$22.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

6%

$83.5k Vol.

$22.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Foreign Policy

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

$106k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

36%

$106k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$87.8k Vol.

$31.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

40%

$87.8k Vol.

$31.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

$107k Vol.

$9.7k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

11%

$107k Vol.

$9.7k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Foreign Policy

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

$11.5k Vol.

$6.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

35%

$11.5k Vol.

$6.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1m Vol.

$5.9k Liq.

145

26%

March 31, 2026

$1m Vol.

$5.9k Liq.

145

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$2m Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

117

8%

June 30, 2026

$2m Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

117

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