World Events

US next strikes Iran on...?

February 1

<1%

February 2

<1%

February 1

<1%

February 2

<1%

$5m Vol.

Monthly

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

February 15

12%

February 28

27%

February 15

12%

February 28

27%

$10m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

11%

chance

$4m Vol.

Monthly

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

February 1

<1%

February 2

February 1

<1%

February 2

$340k Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

40%

chance

$2m Vol.

Daily

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

31%

chance

$4m Vol.

Monthly

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

February 3

13%

February 4

42%

February 3

13%

February 4

42%

$383k Vol.

Daily

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

March 31, 2026

37%

June 30, 2026

44%

March 31, 2026

37%

June 30, 2026

44%

$5m Vol.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

16%

chance

$9m Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

26%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

32%

chance

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

19%

chance

$377k Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

March 31, 2026

31%

June 30

53%

March 31, 2026

31%

June 30

53%

$2m Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

36%

chance

$72k Vol.

Monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

20%

chance

$1m Vol.

Monthly

Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31?

11%

chance

$274k Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Russia

23%

India

15%

Russia

23%

India

15%

$649k Vol.

Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?

28%

chance

$109k Vol.

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

16%

chance

$221k Vol.

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

51%

chance

$56k Vol.

Israel Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

World Events

World Events