Economic Policy predictions & odds

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Fed decision in March?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in March?

$9m Vol.

$2m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

91%

No change

$9m Vol.

$2m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

Economic Policy

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

$703k Vol.

$68.8k today

$99.8k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

100%

No change

$703k Vol.

$68.8k today

$99.8k Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$617k Vol.

$67.3k today

$41.8k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

86%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$617k Vol.

$67.3k today

$41.8k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Economic Policy

Fed rate cut by...?

$659k Vol.

$55.1k today

$62.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

67%

June Meeting

$659k Vol.

$55.1k today

$62.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

Fed decision in April?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$995k Vol.

$54.3k today

$402k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

76%

No change

$995k Vol.

$54.3k today

$402k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economic Policy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$4m Vol.

$828k Liq.

31

Ends in 11 months

25%

3 (75 bps)

$4m Vol.

$828k Liq.

31

Ends in 11 months

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

Economic Policy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

$160k Vol.

$13.3k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

78%

Increase

$160k Vol.

$13.3k Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Economic Policy

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

$198k Vol.

$17.8k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

78%

No change

$198k Vol.

$17.8k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$48.1k Vol.

$64.8k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

66%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$48.1k Vol.

$64.8k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Economic Policy

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$736k Vol.

$106k Liq.

28

Ends in 3 months

8%

May 14

$736k Vol.

$106k Liq.

28

Ends in 3 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economic Policy

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$519k Vol.

$174k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

89%

↓ 3.25%

$519k Vol.

$174k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Economic Policy

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

$276k Vol.

$18.1k Liq.

2

70%

>3.5%

$276k Vol.

$18.1k Liq.

2

GDP growth in 2025

Economic Policy

Democratic Presidential Nomination

GDP growth in 2025

$916k Vol.

$23.1k Liq.

15

81%

2.0–2.5%

$916k Vol.

$23.1k Liq.

15

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

Economic Policy

Bank of Brazil Decision in March?

$38.7k Vol.

$5.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

93%

Decrease

$38.7k Vol.

$5.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Economic Policy

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

$17.4k Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

82%

$17.4k Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Bank of Israel Decision in February?

Economic Policy

Bank of Israel Decision in February?

$37.9k Vol.

$14.9k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

83%

No Change

$37.9k Vol.

$14.9k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

Economic Policy

Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by...?

$28.5k Vol.

$4.3k Liq.

1

Ends in 1 day

1%

January 31

$28.5k Vol.

$4.3k Liq.

1

Ends in 1 day

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economic Policy

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$29.0k Vol.

$9.5k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

12%

$29.0k Vol.

$9.5k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Economic Policy

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$81.2k Vol.

$187k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

29%

3.0%

$81.2k Vol.

$187k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

Economic Policy

March Fed Derivative: Pause or Cut favored on Jan 28?

$9.8k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

100%

No change

$9.8k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

1

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