Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1,465,403 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31, 2026
$150,261 Vol.
26%
March 31, 2026
$150,261 Vol.
26%
February 28, 2026
$382 Vol.
15%
February 28, 2026
$382 Vol.
15%
June 30, 2026
$104 Vol.
60%
June 30, 2026
$104 Vol.
60%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Created At: Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,465,403End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
$1,465,403 Vol.
March 31, 2026
$150,261 Vol.
26%
February 28, 2026
$382 Vol.
15%
June 30, 2026
$104 Vol.
60%
About
Volume
$1,465,403End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
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