Fed Rates Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Economy

Economy

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

98%

Judy Shelton

1%

Kevin Warsh

98%

Judy Shelton

1%

$386m Vol.

Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

7%

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

7%

$53m Vol.

Monthly
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

13%

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

13%

$4m Vol.

Fed decision in April? card icon

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

4%

25 bps decrease

18%

50+ bps decrease

4%

25 bps decrease

18%

$1m Vol.

Monthly
Fed Decision in June? card icon

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

8%

25 bps decrease

44%

50+ bps decrease

8%

25 bps decrease

44%

$117k Vol.

Monthly
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) card icon

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

90%

Cut–Pause–Cut

9%

Cut–Pause–Pause

90%

Cut–Pause–Cut

9%

$745k Vol.

Daily
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

2%

May 14

8%

March 31

2%

May 14

8%

$843k Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? card icon

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.5%

3%

↑ 5.25%

2%

↑ 5.5%

3%

↑ 5.25%

2%

$560k Vol.

Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

March Meeting

8%

April Meeting

26%

March Meeting

8%

April Meeting

26%

$708k Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? card icon

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

≤1.0%

3%

1.25

1%

$122k Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? card icon

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30

60%

December 31

73%

May 30

60%

December 31

73%

$79k Vol.

Fed rate hike in 2026? card icon

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

chance

$34k Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

46%

4.5%

19%

4.4%

46%

4.5%

19%

$72k Vol.

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr) card icon

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

69%

Pause–Pause–Cut

15%

Pause–Pause–Pause

69%

Pause–Pause–Cut

15%

$51k Vol.

Daily
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? card icon

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

4.0%

76%

3.9%

55%

4.0%

76%

3.9%

55%

$41k Vol.