Technology

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

$1m Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k

98%

↑2k

95%

↑1k

98%

↑2k

95%

$6m Vol.

Monthly

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

600

<1%

650

<1%

600

<1%

650

<1%

$587k Vol.

Monthly

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

29%

chance

$345k Vol.

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

$620k Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in January?

3-4"

100%

4-5"

3-4"

100%

4-5"

$123k Vol.

NASA Artemis II

February 7

February 28

70%

February 7

February 28

70%

$116k Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

5–7

$432k Vol.

Daily

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes February 2 - Feb 8?

51%

35%

51%

35%

NEW

•

$30k Vol.

Weekly

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

No IPO before 2028

19%

<1.0T

28%

No IPO before 2028

19%

<1.0T

28%

$58k Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

$898k Vol.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

January 31

<1%

February 28

January 31

<1%

February 28

$739k Vol.

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

53%

chance

$21k Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in February?

NEW

•

$15k Vol.

Monthly

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes Jan 26 - Feb 1?

89%

$147k Vol.

Weekly

Measles cases in U.S. by February 28?

800

90%

1000

78%

800

90%

1000

78%

$65k Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in NYC in January?

<3"

98%

3-4"

<3"

98%

3-4"

$48k Vol.

How many inches of snow in NYC in January?

12-14

99%

14-16

12-14

99%

14-16

$105k Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

chance

$2m Vol.

2026 February 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest

2nd hottest

10%

1st hottest

2nd hottest

10%

NEW

Monthly

Science Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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