January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$6,221 Vol.
>1.19ºC 27%
1.05–1.09ºC 17%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
1.00–1.04ºC 16%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<1.00ºC
$389 Vol.
5%
<1.00ºC
$389 Vol.
5%
1.00–1.04ºC
$52 Vol.
16%
1.00–1.04ºC
$52 Vol.
16%
1.05–1.09ºC
$77 Vol.
17%
1.05–1.09ºC
$77 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$72 Vol.
26%
1.10–1.14ºC
$72 Vol.
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,836 Vol.
24%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,836 Vol.
24%
>1.19ºC
$3,794 Vol.
27%
>1.19ºC
$3,794 Vol.
27%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for January 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for January 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTC
Volume
$6,221End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$6,221 Vol.
January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.19ºC 27%
1.05–1.09ºC 17%
1.10–1.14ºC 26%
1.00–1.04ºC 16%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<1.00ºC
$389 Vol.
5%
1.00–1.04ºC
$52 Vol.
16%
1.05–1.09ºC
$77 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$72 Vol.
26%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,836 Vol.
24%
>1.19ºC
$3,794 Vol.
27%
About
Volume
$6,221End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 9:56 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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