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Will any country leave NATO by...?

$334,205 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$334,205
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 9, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$334,205 Vol.

June 30, 2026

$57,164 Vol.

7%

About

Volume
$334,205
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Oct 9, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Beware of external links.