Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US strikes Iran by...?

Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

$146,672,550 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$146,672,550
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Jan 2, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US strikes Iran by...?

Jan 31

Feb 28

Jun 30

$146,672,550 Vol.

February 1

$3,750,276 Vol.

1%

February 2

$838,562 Vol.

2%

February 3

$287,106 Vol.

4%

February 4

$201,463 Vol.

5%

February 5

$288,794 Vol.

7%

February 6

$2,219,043 Vol.

10%

February 13

$1,602,299 Vol.

23%

February 28

$5,294,998 Vol.

40%

March 31

$4,619,998 Vol.

54%

June 30

$2,486,782 Vol.

61%

About

Volume
$146,672,550
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Jan 2, 2026, 8:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Beware of external links.