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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.7%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.7%

$4,165,274 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,165,274
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 1.7%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.7%

$4,165,274 Vol.

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$174,882 Vol.

75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$176,805 Vol.

15%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$146,684 Vol.

2%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$155,967 Vol.

2%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$134,548 Vol.

2%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$186,762 Vol.

2%

Lecornu - France PM

$139,885 Vol.

1%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$158,505 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$123,997 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$160,951 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$152,811 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$117,363 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$132,932 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$161,819 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$201,555 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$139,851 Vol.

<1%

Starmer - UK PM

$131,677 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$168,270 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$203,592 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$131,920 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$143,743 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$168,251 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$165,815 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$133,409 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$159,557 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$161,893 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$134,374 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$4,165,274
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.