Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 79%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1.6%

Starmer - UK PM <1%

$4,285,438 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,285,438
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 79%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 1.6%

Starmer - UK PM <1%

$4,285,438 Vol.

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$178,924 Vol.

79%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$185,497 Vol.

9%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$190,679 Vol.

2%

Starmer - UK PM

$135,830 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$145,778 Vol.

1%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$161,868 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$141,497 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$149,173 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$137,703 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$127,293 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$160,384 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$204,401 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$163,387 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$125,131 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$143,397 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$155,514 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$164,382 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$208,701 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$162,068 Vol.

<1%

Petro - Colombia President

$149,837 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$170,646 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$170,002 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$168,987 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$137,755 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$146,364 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$135,155 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$165,086 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$4,285,438
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.