Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by January 31 100.0%
December 29 <1%
December 30 <1%
December 31 <1%
$786,219 Vol.
$786,219 Vol.
December 29
$320 Vol.
No
December 29
$320 Vol.
No
December 30
$7,929 Vol.
No
December 30
$7,929 Vol.
No
December 31
$3,899 Vol.
No
December 31
$3,899 Vol.
No
January 1
$8,456 Vol.
No
January 1
$8,456 Vol.
No
January 2
$3,884 Vol.
No
January 2
$3,884 Vol.
No
January 3
$9,975 Vol.
No
January 3
$9,975 Vol.
No
January 4
$14,876 Vol.
No
January 4
$14,876 Vol.
No
January 5
$16,336 Vol.
No
January 5
$16,336 Vol.
No
January 6
$5,381 Vol.
No
January 6
$5,381 Vol.
No
January 7
$15,979 Vol.
No
January 7
$15,979 Vol.
No
January 8
$14,798 Vol.
No
January 8
$14,798 Vol.
No
January 9
$5,332 Vol.
No
January 9
$5,332 Vol.
No
January 10
$17,240 Vol.
No
January 10
$17,240 Vol.
No
January 11
$12,313 Vol.
No
January 11
$12,313 Vol.
No
January 12
$12,256 Vol.
No
January 12
$12,256 Vol.
No
January 13
$5,212 Vol.
No
January 13
$5,212 Vol.
No
January 14
$2,675 Vol.
No
January 14
$2,675 Vol.
No
January 15
$9,576 Vol.
No
January 15
$9,576 Vol.
No
January 16
$13,610 Vol.
No
January 16
$13,610 Vol.
No
January 17
$17,451 Vol.
No
January 17
$17,451 Vol.
No
January 18
$19,157 Vol.
No
January 18
$19,157 Vol.
No
January 19
$22,871 Vol.
No
January 19
$22,871 Vol.
No
January 20
$33,013 Vol.
No
January 20
$33,013 Vol.
No
January 21
$43,597 Vol.
No
January 21
$43,597 Vol.
No
January 22
$30,696 Vol.
No
January 22
$30,696 Vol.
No
January 23
$40,103 Vol.
No
January 23
$40,103 Vol.
No
January 24
$26,185 Vol.
No
January 24
$26,185 Vol.
No
January 25
$21,300 Vol.
No
January 25
$21,300 Vol.
No
January 26
$44,405 Vol.
No
January 26
$44,405 Vol.
No
January 27
$46,720 Vol.
No
January 27
$46,720 Vol.
No
January 28
$42,973 Vol.
No
January 28
$42,973 Vol.
No
January 29
$34,048 Vol.
No
January 29
$34,048 Vol.
No
January 30
$45,980 Vol.
No
January 30
$45,980 Vol.
No
January 31
$31,549 Vol.
No
January 31
$31,549 Vol.
No
No release by January 31
$106,124 Vol.
Yes
No release by January 31
$106,124 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by January 31 100.0%
December 29 <1%
December 30 <1%
December 31 <1%
$786,219 Vol.
$786,219 Vol.
December 29
No
December 30
No
December 31
No
January 1
No
January 2
No
January 3
No
January 4
No
January 5
No
January 6
No
January 7
No
January 8
No
January 9
No
January 10
No
January 11
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 16
No
January 17
No
January 18
No
January 19
No
January 20
No
January 21
No
January 22
No
January 23
No
January 24
No
January 25
No
January 26
No
January 27
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
January 31
No
No release by January 31
Yes
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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