Name: French election called by...?
Start: 2025-08-26T17:32:44.902378Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French parlimentary election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


September 15

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


October 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


October 10

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


October 17

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


November 30, 2025

French election called by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.

A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.

If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.

The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron announce their intention to divorce between by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Emmanuel or Brigitte Macron and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Emmanuel & Brigitte Macron divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moroccan general election is scheduled between October 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Moroccan election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Morocco; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Morocco snap election called by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Lecornu  out as French PM by December 31?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Ligue 1 tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?

On March 31, President of the French National Rally parliamentary group Marine Le Pen was sentenced to 4 years in prison, 2 of which are suspended, and fined €100,000. Additionally, she has been banned from running for office for 5 years. She is expected to appeal the case. You can read more about that here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq40yz70qo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marine Le Pen receives a reduced sentence as a result of a formal appeal decision by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

 A reduced sentence includes any official change that lessens the severity or length of the original sentence, such as a shorter prison term, a reduced fine, or restoration of Le Pen's eligibility to run for public office.

The reduced sentence must apply to the referenced case, where she was convicted of "Abuse of Public Funds".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.



Le Pen sentence reduced in 2025?

The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).

Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).

Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 25th Knesset, which is the sitting parliament of Israel, is dissolved between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Paul Biya ceases to be President of Cameroon for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Paul Biya will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Cameroon within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Cameroon; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Paul Biya out as President of Cameroon by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

French election called by...?

November 30, 2025
$17,042 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2025
$393,250 Vol.
7%

June 30, 2026
$1,066 Vol.
37%
0123456789
%

Market Context

French election called by...?

Rules

French election called by...?

Market Context

French election called by...?

About

Related

French election called by...?

November 30, 2025$17,042 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No0.0¢

December 31, 2025$393,250 Vol.7%buy Yes7¢buy No94¢

June 30, 2026$1,066 Vol.37%0123456789%buy Yes43¢buy No69¢

Market Context

French election called by...?

Rules

French election called by...?

Market Context

French election called by...?

About

Related

November 30, 2025
$17,042 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2025
$393,250 Vol.
7%

June 30, 2026
$1,066 Vol.
37%
0123456789
%