Market icon

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$294,910 Vol.

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$294,910

End Date

Mar 31, 2026

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Beware of external links.

$294,910 Vol.

Market icon

U.S. nuclear test by...?

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

November 30

$191,493 Vol.

<1%

December 31

$75,580 Vol.

2%

March 31, 2026

$27,837 Vol.

8%

About

Volume

$294,910

End Date

Mar 31, 2026