Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 83%
February 14 5.1%
February 9 3.0%
February 7 2.5%
$39,429 Vol.
$39,429 Vol.
February 1
$1,901 Vol.
<1%
February 1
$1,901 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$1,911 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$1,911 Vol.
<1%
February 3
$1,386 Vol.
1%
February 3
$1,386 Vol.
1%
February 4
$974 Vol.
<1%
February 4
$974 Vol.
<1%
February 5
$857 Vol.
<1%
February 5
$857 Vol.
<1%
February 6
$869 Vol.
1%
February 6
$869 Vol.
1%
February 7
$1,253 Vol.
2%
February 7
$1,253 Vol.
2%
February 8
$898 Vol.
<1%
February 8
$898 Vol.
<1%
February 9
$861 Vol.
3%
February 9
$861 Vol.
3%
February 10
$936 Vol.
2%
February 10
$936 Vol.
2%
February 11
$988 Vol.
2%
February 11
$988 Vol.
2%
February 12
$1,168 Vol.
1%
February 12
$1,168 Vol.
1%
February 13
$929 Vol.
2%
February 13
$929 Vol.
2%
February 14
$1,138 Vol.
5%
February 14
$1,138 Vol.
5%
No release by February 14
$9,631 Vol.
83%
No release by February 14
$9,631 Vol.
83%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 28, 2026, 10:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by February 14 83%
February 14 5.1%
February 9 3.0%
February 7 2.5%
$39,429 Vol.
$39,429 Vol.
February 1
<1%
February 2
<1%
February 3
1%
February 4
<1%
February 5
<1%
February 6
1%
February 7
2%
February 8
<1%
February 9
3%
February 10
2%
February 11
2%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
5%
No release by February 14
83%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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