Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
$296,195 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
February 3
$49,565 Vol.
36%
February 3
$49,565 Vol.
36%
February 4
$13,666 Vol.
54%
February 4
$13,666 Vol.
54%
February 5
$9,806 Vol.
62%
February 5
$9,806 Vol.
62%
February 6
$6,955 Vol.
46%
February 6
$6,955 Vol.
46%
February 7
$7,320 Vol.
63%
February 7
$7,320 Vol.
63%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$296,195End Date
Feb 28, 2026Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
$296,195 Vol.
February 3
$49,565 Vol.
36%
February 4
$13,666 Vol.
54%
February 5
$9,806 Vol.
62%
February 6
$6,955 Vol.
46%
February 7
$7,320 Vol.
63%
About
Volume
$296,195End Date
Feb 28, 2026Created At
Jan 27, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
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