Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 39.6%

Pam Bondi 17.0%

None before 2027 9.9%

Scott Bessent 5.4%

$1,492,670 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,492,670
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 39.6%

Pam Bondi 17.0%

None before 2027 9.9%

Scott Bessent 5.4%

$1,492,670 Vol.

Kristi Noem

$167,527 Vol.

40%

Pam Bondi

$249,780 Vol.

17%

None before 2027

$88,240 Vol.

10%

Scott Bessent

$22,405 Vol.

5%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$43,113 Vol.

5%

Tulsi Gabbard

$23,220 Vol.

4%

Pete Hegseth

$49,500 Vol.

3%

Stephen Miran

$18,673 Vol.

3%

Chris Wright

$17,267 Vol.

2%

Russell T. Vought

$42,184 Vol.

2%

Linda McMahon

$12,956 Vol.

1%

Howard Lutnick

$40,095 Vol.

1%

Susie Wiles

$46,902 Vol.

1%

Jamieson Greer

$51,572 Vol.

1%

John Ratcliffe

$94,088 Vol.

1%

Kelly Loeffler

$51,599 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$56,514 Vol.

1%

Sean Duffy

$43,080 Vol.

1%

Mike Waltz

$25,280 Vol.

1%

Brooke Rollins

$12,594 Vol.

1%

Marco Rubio

$73,979 Vol.

1%

Doug Burgum

$77,611 Vol.

1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$16,773 Vol.

1%

Lee Zeldin

$29,527 Vol.

1%

Doug Collins

$74,926 Vol.

1%

J.D. Vance

$63,265 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$1,492,670
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.