Name: Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?
Start: 2025-11-12T23:33:58.35008Z
End: 2025-11-30T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between November 23 and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). 

The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025 to November 30, 2025 by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between November 23 and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025, and onward, prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range, will be considered.

If data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025, to November 30, 2025, by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

<18m

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between November 23 and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025 to November 30, 2025 by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

20–22m

>26m

18–20m

22–24m

24–26m

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between December 1 and December 7, 2025 (inclusive). 

The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).

If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.

If data is not available for any of the dates from December 1, 2025 to December 7, 2025 by January 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be between 16,000,000 and 18,000,000?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 3,100,000 for any date between November 23, 2025, and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range or on any date before that if the target number is reached within the market timeframe. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025, and onward, prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range, will be considered.

If the target number has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025, to November 30, 2025, by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001)

This market will resolve according to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees between the December 2024 report and the December 2025 report.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the December 2025 value.

The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial December 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on January 9, 2026. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.


Will Elon and DOGE cut 150-200k employees in 2025?

This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q3 2025 is higher than Q2 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA

Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q3 2025 release will not be counted.

If all relevant data is not published by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.

US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.

Note: If November 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve according to how much "Wicked: For Good" Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day weekend (November 26 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Daily Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will "Wicked: For Good" Second Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 93m?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.

2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlas global browser market share is at least the listed percentage on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant data will be sourced from StatCounter Global Stats, utilizing the following settings: Statistic: Browser; Checked: Desktop, Mobile, Tablet, Console; Region: Worldwide; Period: Daily (https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#daily-20251014-20251020).

Only the first released data will be considered; later revisions will not be used. 

If "Atlas" is not explicitly listed under these settings when data for this date is first released, this market will resolve to "No".

If the data is not reported by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or if the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be selected.

Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.

1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Pittsburgh this December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on December 5 than on November 28, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on November 28 than on December 5, 2025.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.

The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.

If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

<18m
$120,690 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

18–20m
$28,426 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

20–22m
$30,647 Vol.
80%
0123456789
%

22–24m
$34,911 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

24–26m
$98,959 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

>26m
$64,466 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

Rules

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

Market Context

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

About

Related

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

<18m$120,690 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.9¢

18–20m$28,426 Vol.18%0123456789%buy Yes19¢buy No84¢

20–22m$30,647 Vol.80%0123456789%buy Yes82¢buy No22¢

22–24m$34,911 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.6¢

24–26m$98,959 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

>26m$64,466 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.1¢buy No0.0¢

Market Context

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

Rules

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

Market Context

Number of TSA passengers November 23-30?

About

Related

<18m
$120,690 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

18–20m
$28,426 Vol.
18%
0123456789
%

20–22m
$30,647 Vol.
80%
0123456789
%

22–24m
$34,911 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

24–26m
$98,959 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

>26m
$64,466 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%