Trump won, now what?
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
12%
chance
0.5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?
1%
chance
0%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
61%
chance
1.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
27%
chance
1.5%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?
11%
chance
8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?
5%
chance
0.1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
6%
chance
2.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
3%
chance
0.4%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
14%
chance
1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31?
1%
chance
0.1%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
9%
chance
2%
Trump out as President in 2025?
1%
chance
0.2%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?
95%
chance
53.6%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
10%
chance
1.4%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
3%
chance
0.6%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
28%
chance
0.5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition
92%
chance
0.5%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
6%
chance
1.3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?
4%
chance
0.8%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?
4%
chance
0.1%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
3%
chance
0.4%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition
86%
chance
2%
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?
1%
chance
0.3%
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
2%
chance
0.5%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
91%
chance
4%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?
9%
chance
0.3%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?
12%
chance
2.5%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
4%
chance
0.3%
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked in 2025?
1%
chance
0.1%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
1%
chance
0.1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
12%
chance
0.5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?
1%
chance
0%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
61%
chance
1.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
27%
chance
1.5%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?
11%
chance
8%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?
5%
chance
0.1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
6%
chance
2.4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
3%
chance
0.4%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
14%
chance
1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31?
1%
chance
0.1%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
9%
chance
2%
Trump out as President in 2025?
1%
chance
0.2%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?
95%
chance
53.6%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
10%
chance
1.4%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
3%
chance
0.6%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
28%
chance
0.5%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition
92%
chance
0.5%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
6%
chance
1.3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?
4%
chance
0.8%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025?
4%
chance
0.1%
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
3%
chance
0.4%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition
86%
chance
2%
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?
1%
chance
0.3%
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
2%
chance
0.5%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
91%
chance
4%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?
9%
chance
0.3%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?
12%
chance
2.5%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
4%
chance
0.3%
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked in 2025?
1%
chance
0.1%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
1%
chance
0.1%
