Trump won, now what?
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
33%chance
6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
15%chance
0.5%
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
0%chance
0.7%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
2%chance
1.8%
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?
59%chance
18%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
77%chance
4.8%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
14%chance
1%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
31%chance
1.5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
23%chance
3%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.3%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
16%chance
0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
10%chance
0.5%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
2%chance
0.2%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
7%chance
3.5%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
13%chance
0.5%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
30%chance
0.5%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
2%chance
1.1%
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?
47%chance
4%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
46%chance
0%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
34%chance
0.7%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
33%chance
6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
15%chance
0.5%
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
0%chance
0.7%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
2%chance
1.8%
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?
59%chance
18%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
77%chance
4.8%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
14%chance
1%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
31%chance
1.5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
23%chance
3%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
2%chance
0.3%
Trump impeached by end of 2026?
16%chance
0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
10%chance
0.5%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
2%chance
0.2%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?
2%chance
0.1%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?
7%chance
3.5%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
13%chance
0.5%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
7%chance
0%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?
30%chance
0.5%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
2%chance
1.1%
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?
47%chance
4%
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?
46%chance
0%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
34%chance
0.7%
