Trump approval rating on December 31?
$484,876 Vol.
42.0–43.9% 90%
40.0–41.9% 9%
44.0–45.9% <1%
<40.0% <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<40.0%
$80,973 Vol.
<1%
<40.0%
$80,973 Vol.
<1%
40.0–41.9%
$98,675 Vol.
9%
40.0–41.9%
$98,675 Vol.
9%
42.0–43.9%
$55,727 Vol.
90%
42.0–43.9%
$55,727 Vol.
90%
44.0–45.9%
$67,181 Vol.
<1%
44.0–45.9%
$67,181 Vol.
<1%
46.0–47.9%
$66,867 Vol.
<1%
46.0–47.9%
$66,867 Vol.
<1%
48.0–49.9%
$57,232 Vol.
<1%
48.0–49.9%
$57,232 Vol.
<1%
≥50.0%
$58,222 Vol.
<1%
≥50.0%
$58,222 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on December 31, 2025.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Created At: Sep 11, 2025, 12:12 AM UTC
Volume
$484,876End Date
Jan 1, 2026Created At
Sep 11, 2025, 12:12 AM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$484,876 Vol.
Trump approval rating on December 31?
42.0–43.9% 90%
40.0–41.9% 9%
44.0–45.9% <1%
<40.0% <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
<40.0%
$80,973 Vol.
<1%
40.0–41.9%
$98,675 Vol.
9%
42.0–43.9%
$55,727 Vol.
90%
44.0–45.9%
$67,181 Vol.
<1%
46.0–47.9%
$66,867 Vol.
<1%
48.0–49.9%
$57,232 Vol.
<1%
≥50.0%
$58,222 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$484,876End Date
Jan 1, 2026Created At
Sep 11, 2025, 12:12 AM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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