How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?
NEW
1 44%
0 36%
2 18%
3 3.5%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
0
$1,183 Vol.
36%
0
$1,183 Vol.
36%
1
$144 Vol.
44%
1
$144 Vol.
44%
2
$379 Vol.
18%
2
$379 Vol.
18%
3
$195 Vol.
4%
3
$195 Vol.
4%
4
$334 Vol.
2%
4
$334 Vol.
2%
5
$604 Vol.
3%
5
$604 Vol.
3%
>5
$214 Vol.
2%
>5
$214 Vol.
2%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 28, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM UTC
Volume
$3,053End Date
Jan 4, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NEW
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes by January 4?
1 44%
0 36%
2 18%
3 3.5%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
0
$1,183 Vol.
36%
1
$144 Vol.
44%
2
$379 Vol.
18%
3
$195 Vol.
4%
4
$334 Vol.
2%
5
$604 Vol.
3%
>5
$214 Vol.
2%
About
Volume
$3,053End Date
Jan 4, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 10:05 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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