Name: Bank of Brazil decision in January?
Start: 2025-11-14T22:21:44.313363Z
End: 2026-01-27T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its January 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for January 26-27, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

No Change

Hike

Bank of Brazil decision

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's November 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its November 4-5, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/detalhenoticia/20184/nota

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their November meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the Selic rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Central Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its December 2025 policy meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the monetary policy rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Colombia's December 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its December 19, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos

This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the December meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brazil's unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is below 6.3% when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#desemprego) public release of the Q4 2025 figure unemployment, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure. 

Because this market's resolution source reports quarterly unemployment to one decimal point (e.g. 4.5%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.


Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025?

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households across urban areas in Brazil, measuring changes in prices for a diverse set of goods and services.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 12-month IPCA for December 2025 is below 5.50%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#ipca) public release of 12 month IPCA figure for December 2025, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure.

Because this market's resolution source reports inflation over 12 month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.56%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the Bank of England's Bank Rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the the Federal Senate (Senado Federal) votes to proceed with any impeachment of Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil Alexandre de Moraes by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the first such vote the Senate undertakes (e.g., if the Federal Senate decides to vote on the impeachment of Alexandre de Moraes and it fails to pass, this market will resolve to "No").

This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the Senate successfully votes to proceed with this impeachment, regardless of the impeachment's outcome.

If it becomes impossible to impeach Alexandre de Moraes while he is in his role as Minister (e.g., he resigns) and the "Yes" condition has not yet been met, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of Brazil, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between “No Change” and “25 bps decrease”, “No Change” becomes the favorite in the Dec 10, 2025 Fed decision market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december) for any 4 hour period ending December 9, 2025, 11:59PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“No Change” will be considered to have become the favorite for a four hour period if it is ahead of “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” in more individual minutes than “25 bps cut / 25 bps decrease” is ahead of “No Change” during the period.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the Dec 10, 2025 “Fed decision in December?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on Federivative (https://federivative.polymarket.com/) with the range set to "6H" and the candle set to “1m” or through the “Resolution” tab on Federivative with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Jair Bolsonaro has left Brazil for any length of time between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Jair Bolsonaro may have exited Brazilian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Brazil for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Jair Bolsonaro exits Brazilian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025?

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2025, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).

This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2025, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).

If the official rate for that date has not been published by January 7, 2026, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.

The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g. 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new country accepts an invitation to join BRICS between July 23 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only new member states, not new partner states, will be considered toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this country will be information from BRICS members (e.g., https://brics.br/en/about-the-brics, etc.); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will BRICS add a new member by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Cut
$1,156 Vol.
60%

No Change
$956 Vol.
39%

Hike
$595 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Rules

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Market Context

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

About

Related

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Cut$1,156 Vol.60%buy Yes61¢buy No41¢

No Change$956 Vol.39%buy Yes40¢buy No62¢

Hike$595 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

Market Context

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Rules

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

Market Context

Bank of Brazil decision in January?

About

Related

Cut
$1,156 Vol.
60%

No Change
$956 Vol.
39%

Hike
$595 Vol.
<1%