Name: Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?
Start: 2025-11-07T17:20:29.832575Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Blackpink (블랙핑크, BLɅϽKPIИK) officially releases a new album by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Blackpink streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Blackpink (블랙핑크, BLɅϽKPIИK) officially releases a new album between June 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Blackpink streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between April 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Kanye West release an album in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BTS (방탄소년단) releases any new music track credited to the group between June 3 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The track must be publicly released through major music platforms (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube) and must be announced via official BTS or BigHit Music channels. The release must include new musical content; re-releases, remasters, or compilations of previously released songs do not count unless they contain newly recorded material.

Tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than "BTS" as a group will not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be any official BTS streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake’s next officially released album debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart for its first charted week following release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve as soon as Billboard publishes the first chart week in which the album appears.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).

Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed albums (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/).

This market will resolve according to the most-streamed Spotify album for 2025.

If Spotify does not release its top album for 2025 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.

Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Justin Bieber song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Half-Life 3 or a differently titled game continuing the Half-Life series is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Valve Corporation.

Half-Life 3 released in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the name of the album occupying the #1 spot on Rolling Stone magazine's 100 Best Albums of 2025 list.

If no such list is published by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie for the #1 position, this market will resolve in favor of the album whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone magazine or the Rolling Stone website (see: https://www.rollingstone.com/music/)

Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS (Bad Bunny) be the #1 album on Rolling Stone's 100 Best Albums of 2025 list?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Britney Spears announces a new tour between December 29, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Britney Spears will go on tour within the stated timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when she actually does so.

The resolution source will be an announcement from Britney Spears or her official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Britney Spears tour in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only podcast released by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released before June 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song released by GELO after March 31 is on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point between April 1, and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).

Will GELO drop another Billboard top 100 hit in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wicked: For Good – The Soundtrack debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart for its first charted week following release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Wicked: For Good – The Soundtrack is not released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve as soon as Billboard publishes the first chart week in which the soundtrack appears.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).

Will 'Wicked: For Good – The Soundtrack' debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lana Del Rey and/or Jeremy Dufrene announce their intention to divorce between December 29, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Lana Del Rey and/or Jeremy Dufrene or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Lana Del Rey divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

GTA VI released in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber announce their intention to divorce between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement within this market's timeframe of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce in 2025?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed songs (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/).

This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025.

If Spotify does not release its top song for 2025 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.

Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?

This market will resolve according to the number of consecutive weeks that The Life of a Showgirl holds the #1 spot on the Billboard 200.

If the album does not debut as #1 or is otherwise not released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (0).

Consecutive weeks are counted based on Billboard’s official weekly Billboard 200 chart publications. 

The resolution source will be based on Billboard’s official Billboard 200 chart.

Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 7 straight weeks?

This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

New Half-Life game by June 30?

The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://www.youtube.com/@allin)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will "Dumb" or "Kamala" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian receives a passing score on the California Bar Exam by May 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of all California State Bar Exams within this market's timeframe are not known by the specified end date, this market may remain open until May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which, if results remain unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the California State Bar Association, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Bybit, official representatives of Bybit (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Bybit is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Bybit insolvent in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Beyoncé and/or Jay-Z announce their intention to divorce between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Beyoncé and/or Jay-Z, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Jay-Z & Beyoncé divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if One Direction either performs together, releases new music as a group, or publicly announces they will do either of these things by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that One Direction will perform together or release new music as a group before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when they actually do so.

Qualifying performances include live events, televised appearances, online streaming, etc. Releases include any single, EP, or album credited to "One Direction." All living members of the group must be part of an event for it to qualify as a reunion.

The resolution source will be an announcement from One Direction or its official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

One Direction reunion in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will iRobot announce bankruptcy before 2027?

If Kanye West visits Israel by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kanye West physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Kanye West enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Kanye West, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between October 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae in jail by December 31?

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Sabrina Carpenter song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Sabrina Carpenter song reach #1 again this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hailey Bieber announces that she is pregnant between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be statements from Hailey Bieber or her representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

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Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

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Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

Order Book

Market Context

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?

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