Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?

8% chance
NEW

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes for any 1-hour period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on February 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a relevant 1-hour window. This will display the 1-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volume
$9,055
End Date
Feb 6, 2026
Created At
Feb 2, 2026, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes for any 1-hour period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on February 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a relevant 1-hour window. This will display the 1-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?

8% chance
NEW

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes for any 1-hour period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on February 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a relevant 1-hour window. This will display the 1-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volume
$9,055
End Date
Feb 6, 2026
Created At
Feb 2, 2026, 5:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market in the Event 'US strikes Iran by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes for any 1-hour period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on February 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a relevant 1-hour window. This will display the 1-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Beware of external links.