Name: How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?
Start: 2025-11-15T00:46:28.558106Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the number of named typhoons (i.e., storms assigned an official name) that occur in the Northwest Pacific basin between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM UTC, according to the official list published on the Digital Typhoon website by Japan’s National Institute of Informatics. (see: https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2025.html.en)

A “named typhoon” refers to any system officially assigned a name by the meteorological agencies responsible for the Western North Pacific basin. Only storms appearing on the 2025 list on the Digital Typhoon website will count.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until January 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the listed division during the 2025-26 NHL regular season.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win its division (e.g., mathematical elimination before season end), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.


Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

On February 21, a bat coronavirus that has the capacity to spread to humans, similar to the one that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, was reportedly discovered (See: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between February 21, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in December?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Western Conference during the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Western Conference (e.g., elimination from the playoffs), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or the playoffs have not been completed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the listed division for the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. 

If it becomes impossible for this team to win based on the rules of the NBA this market will resolve to “No”. 

If multiple teams share the same record, official NBA tie breaking rules will be used to determine the outcome.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?

This market will resolve according to the number of days on which precipitation is recorded as greater than 0 inches in Central Park, New York City between December 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for December 2025 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "NY-Central Park Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" and the summary set to "Number of days" with the threshold at ">0" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of December 2025.
 
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC record precipitation on exactly 11 days in December?

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Eastern Conference during the 2025-26 NHL Playoffs.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Eastern Conference (e.g., elimination from the playoffs), the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If the 2025-26 NHL season is permanently canceled or the playoffs have not been completed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of January 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption is classified as having a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The eruption must be classified as a natural volcanic event of any Eruption Type (i.e., Explosive, Effusive, Phreatic, Lava Lake, Submarine, or similar); eruptions caused by artificial activity, testing, or human-induced explosions do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP), specifically the Max VEI figures released on the "Eruptions in 2026 (New/Total)" page once released. The relevant field for determining eruption strength is the assigned VEI value for the eruptive event. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by February 28, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Division?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

27
$1,708 Vol.
97%
0123456789
%

28
$760 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

29
$946 Vol.
<1%

30
$725 Vol.
<1%

31
$737 Vol.
<1%

32
$724 Vol.
<1%

>32
$1,288 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

Rules

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

Market Context

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

About

Related

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

27$1,708 Vol.97%0123456789%buy Yes99.2¢buy No4.3¢

28$760 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes2.3¢buy No99.8¢

29$946 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.8¢

30$725 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.9¢

31$737 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.9¢

32$724 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.9¢

>32$1,288 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

Market Context

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

Rules

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

Market Context

How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025?

About

Related

27
$1,708 Vol.
97%
0123456789
%

28
$760 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

29
$946 Vol.
<1%

30
$725 Vol.
<1%

31
$737 Vol.
<1%

32
$724 Vol.
<1%

>32
$1,288 Vol.
<1%