0123456789
0123456789

 Science polymarkets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Science

Weather

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

36%

2

$389k Vol.

$263k today

$45.3k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 year

November 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Science

Weather

November 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

57%

1.20–1.24ºC

$498k Vol.

$149k today

$23.7k Liq.

15

Ends in 11 days

2025 November 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science

Weather

2025 November 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

92%

3rd hottest

$741k Vol.

$107k today

$46.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 10 days

How many SpaceX launches in 2025?

Science

SpaceX

How many SpaceX launches in 2025?

95%

160-179

$346k Vol.

$79.7k today

$26.2k Liq.

10

Ends in about 1 month

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Science

Politics

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

2%

$6m Vol.

$58.6k today

$151k Liq.

262

Ends in about 1 month

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?

Science

Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by December 31?

33%

1

$205k Vol.

$19.5k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

Interstellar object confirmed aliens?

Science

Culture

Interstellar object confirmed aliens?

2%

$586k Vol.

$81.8k Liq.

45

Ends in about 1 month

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Science

Weather

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

2%

November 30

$129k Vol.

$1.9k Liq.

42

Ends in about 8 hours

Measles cases in U.S. before 2026?

Science

Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. before 2026?

100%

1800

$1m Vol.

$39.8k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Science

Politics

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

10%

$18.8k Vol.

$29.6k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 year

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Science

Pandemics

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

2%

$19.3k Vol.

$4.0k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

Science

Politics

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

2%

$18.5k Vol.

$7.4k Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Science

Culture

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

97%

$81.9k Vol.

$10.3k Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

Science

SpaceX

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

8%

$260k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

16

Ends in about 1 month

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

Science

SpaceX

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

5%

$72.5k Vol.

$3.4k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Science

Weather

How many named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

100%

12-15

$997k Vol.

$48.1k Liq.

6

Ends in 2 days

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2025?

Science

SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2025?

98%

4-6

$521k Vol.

$60.1k Liq.

12

Ends in about 1 month

New pandemic in 2025?

Science

Health

New pandemic in 2025?

1%

$221k Vol.

$30.4k Liq.

20

Ends in about 1 month

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

Science

Politics

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

1%

$54.8k Vol.

$11.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Science

Crypto

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

4%

$14.9k Vol.

$7.2k Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 year