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 Fed polymarkets

Fed decision in December?

Fed decision in December?

87%

25 bps decrease

$186m Vol.

$7m today

$7m Liq.

1,893

Ends in 10 days

Fed decision in January?

Fed decision in January?

68%

No change

$1m Vol.

$128k today

$291k Liq.

1,369

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

88%

3 (75 bps)

$26m Vol.

$100k today

$1m Liq.

81

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

23%

3 (75 bps)

$545k Vol.

$538k Liq.

9

Ends in about 1 year

Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?

Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?

45%

No announcement by December 31

$6m Vol.

$212k Liq.

37

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate hike in 2025?

Fed rate hike in 2025?

1%

$839k Vol.

$41.2k Liq.

29

Ends in 11 days

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?

1%

December 31

$10m Vol.

$15.4k Liq.

1,094

Ends in about 1 month

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

39%

2

$48.5k Vol.

$18.2k Liq.

1

Ends in 10 days

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

64%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$403k Vol.

$59.9k Liq.

15

Ends in 2 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed decision in March?

57%

No change

$44.5k Vol.

$234k Liq.

418

Ends in 4 months

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?

2%

$1m Vol.

$38.0k Liq.

5

Ends in about 1 month

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?

3%

$12.2k Vol.

$13.3k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

Fed decisions (Sep-Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep-Dec)

88%

Cut–Cut–Cut

$1m Vol.

$56.0k Liq.

15

Ends in 10 days

Fed abolished in 2025?

Fed abolished in 2025?

1%

$390k Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

What will Powell say during December Press Conference?

What will Powell say during December Press Conference?

97%

Good afternoon

$94.5k Vol.

$57.0k Liq.

20

Ends in 10 days

Who will Trump announce as Lisa Cook replacement?

Who will Trump announce as Lisa Cook replacement?

97%

No announcement by December 31

$297k Vol.

$28.8k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

38%

Cut–Pause–Cut

$46.8k Vol.

$95.0k Liq.

1

Ends in 4 months

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

Fed decision & dissent combo in December?

54%

25bp cut, Dissents: >2

$1.2k Vol.

$11.1k Liq.

Ends in 12 days

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

47%

No change

$6.9k Vol.

$180k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

2%

$11m Vol.

$123k Liq.

420

Ends in about 1 month