Name: Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?
Start: 2025-08-28T17:27:25.532858Z
End: 2026-01-01T04:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated's total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases


MSTR holdings

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 550,000 or more bitcoins at any point by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April?

On December 30, MicroStrategy announced that, " the Company, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 446,400 bitcoins" (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt86aee42aac939a6f/6772966708d14f09dfda7bd4/form-8-k_12-30-2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy holds 500,000 or more bitcoins at any point by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.


Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 550,000 or more bitcoins at any point by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.


Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 600,000 or more bitcoins at any point by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 600,000 or more bitcoins at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 650,000 or more bitcoins at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated holds 620,000 or more bitcoins at any point by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated's total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases


Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated's total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC by August 31?

Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated's total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases


Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by October 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is forced to liquidate any of its Bitcoin holdings/positions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, due to lender action or other external financial obligations beyond its control. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Forced liquidation is defined as the sale of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy or a lender as a direct result of a contractual obligation, such as a loan default, an unfulfilled margin call, or legal/regulatory enforcement requiring the company to sell. Voluntary Bitcoin sales, proactive debt repayments, or discretionary asset reallocation will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting. 


Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. 

The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

On March 11, Senator Lummis reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which aims to purchase 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1899447562790211883

This market will resolve to "Yes" if this act passes the Senate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Senate passes bill to purchase 1m Bitcoin in 2025?

On November 18, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced H.B. 1598, a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the state treasury (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/texas-house-introduces-bill-to-establish-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if H.B. 1598, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk's net worth, as listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reaches or exceeds $1 trillion at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? 

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if it is officially announced that the listed individual, either personally or through an entity, enters into an agreement with TikTok to acquire its US operations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The entity entering into the agreement does not need to be controlled by the listed individual; their involvement as a partial owner, investor, or similar role will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed individual and/or TikTok, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”
Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.

A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.

Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in December to the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in November, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).

Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Solana, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Solana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy Ethereum in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sentient officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Sentient (https://www.sentient.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stable officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Stable (https://www.stable.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Stable launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if Microstrategy's mNAV is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Resolution will be based on StrategyTracker's "NAV Premium & Performance" chart available at https://strategytracker.com/mstr/, with "1M" and "Diluted Shares" selected.

NAV data for any given date will be considered finalized once the data point for the following calendar day is published on the chart.

This market will resolve based on the specified StrategyTracker chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Microstrategy's mNAV reach 2.50 by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if net Bitcoin ETF flows in 2025 are greater than $33.6B (the total net flows recorded in 2024). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Net flows for 2025 will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative flow shown on January 1, 2025 from the cumulative flow shown on December 31, 2025.

A daily cumulative flow data point on Farside will be considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

The resolution source is Farside’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow chart available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/

This market resolves solely according to the cumulative flow values displayed on Farside, not according to other ETF flow sources.

If Farside becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

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Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

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Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

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Market Context

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

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