Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?

Name: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?
Start: 2025-10-29T02:10:49.683476Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

$54,545 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025

13% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$54,545

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

Resolver

0x65070BE91...