Name: Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-23T00:32:59.91889Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Strait of Hormuz

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Iran is seriously considering closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks, a move that could disrupt 20-25% of global oil and gas supply. This threat, voiced by Iranian officials and parliament members, has raised alarms in the UK and beyond, with potential to severely impact energy markets.

Iran Threatens Hormuz Closure

VIDEO: Tucker Carlson is Right - President Trump is Aiding and Abetting Israel’s Attempt to Trigger Total War with Iran that Most Military Experts Agree Leads to the Closing of the Strait of Hormuz and All-Out War in the Middle East

The World Has Never Been Closer to https://t.co/6ksFSRv52g

BREAKING: 

🇬🇧🇮🇷 UK says it is worried about Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz

It will skyrocket the oil prices in Europe. https://t.co/01Sw8l18W6

BREAKING: The Iranian Parliament says Iran is seriously looking at a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Israel's attacks.

If this happens, this would be absolutely devastating for the United States and most of the world, as 24% of the world's oil passes through it. https://t.co/hTAmiKx6Iz

Significant air-defense activity reported over the city of Bandar Abbas in Southern Iran, on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/BOoiR7toRl

🚨 Iran's military official says closing the Strait of Hormuz is on the table https://t.co/sZ4yVU6URg

BREAKING:

IRGC General Ismael Kowsari says Closing the Strait of Hormuz is on the table.

Approximately 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/9B8ys0qOLs

BREAKING:

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran seriously considering closing Strait of Hormuz. - Reuters

Expect oil prices to skyrocket now. https://t.co/s6QUgPhsjr

General Esmail Kowsari, a member of the Parliament’s National Security Commission: Closing the Strait of Hormuz is under consideration, and Iran will take the appropriate decision with full determination. https://t.co/fdzF0qfGHI

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran considers closing the Strait of Hormuz, blocking access to oil routes. https://t.co/oBCIMLPTz4

🇮🇷‼️🚨 Iranian liberal women, who don’t cover their hair, demand the atomic bomb now and to close the strait of Hormuz, to choke off oil trade.

Israel counted on them to protest and overthrow the government, but turns out if you attack them … they all bind together and want to https://t.co/UjeLctnafq

JUST IN - Iran is "seriously considering" closing the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian parliament member told Reuters — Al Jazeera

Trump is going to say yes. The US will drop 30,000lb bombs on their nuclear sites, that may or may not be enough to reach the facilities 80 meters underground, and then Iran is going to shutdown the Strait of Hormuz. And then energy prices are going to go through the roof and https://t.co/w1AwiYKlBa

भारत का 80% तेल गल्फ के Strait of Hormuz से गुजरता है. एशियाई देशों का 85% भी तेल भी रास्ते से आता है.

यूरोप जाने वाली गैस का बड़ा हिस्सा भी Strait of Hormuz पार कर यूरोप जाता है.

80 किलोमीटर चौड़ी खड़ी को ईरान युद्ध के समय जहाजों को टारगेट कर बंद कर सकता है.

जो लोग इजराइल और https://t.co/ahbOJlMUN2

(1/2) What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz?

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Strategic Context:

The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. Roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and 30% of global LNG shipments transit its narrow waters daily. If Iran were to https://t.co/8kjr4tqMLF

The reason why Trump overruled Israel’s plans to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei is because of oil prices. 

If Israel assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader, Iran would instantly close off the Strait of Hormuz. 

20-25% of the world’s oil and natural gas supply would vanish

BREAKING: It is claimed that Iran is considering a move that would shock the West and some Arab countries by closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab in response to Israeli attacks.

BREAKING: UK says it is worried about Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz

IRANIAN LAWMAKER KOSARI SAYS CLOSURE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS SERIOUSLY BEING REVIEWED BY IRAN - IRINN REPORTS

Iranian Parliament representative and retired IRGC general Mohammad Kowsari says that Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/Eq5BDtZXwS

Iran has issued a warning to close the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of disrupted petroleum flow, which could severely impact global economies like America, Europe, China, Japan, and South Korea. Reports of a possible Israeli strike on Iran and an intercepted foreign-flagged tanker near the Strait have further escalated geopolitical tensions and market concerns.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Question to Grok: About 20% of the world's petroleum comes out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. What would happen to the economies of America, Europe, China, Japan and South Korea if that petroleum flow was disrupted for one month or longer? Answer in under 200 https://t.co/r8zapqGQnM

Report of "Hijacked" Tanker Near Strait of Hormuz Was False

Iranian forces have intercepted a foreign-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, according to British maritime security consultancy Ambrey. 

In a notice released Tuesday, Ambrey said that a Panamanian-flagged https://t.co/9XQHNHDWud

Oil is a global stress signal. Prices surged to $66 after reports of a possible Israeli strike on Iran. Why? Markets fear escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping disruptions, and broader geopolitical fallout, @tmrwsaffairs. Russia relies on oil as its main war chest. Driving https://t.co/Q8of1GX5kI

Iran has issued a warning to close the Strait of Hormuz this week .Overall, it would start from the sea or it has already started. So,
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If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2023?

If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".


1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.


2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". 

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

On June 13, Iranian leaders announced they no longer plan to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5348689-iran-nuclear-deal-talks-suspended/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that official nuclear-related negotiations between the United States and Iran resume at any point on by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the talks must involve official representatives of both governments and focus primarily on nuclear issues, such as uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, IAEA inspections, or the JCPOA. Talks may be direct or mediated, and may occur in person or virtually.

Only the actual resumption of talks will count; announcements that talks have been scheduled to resume will not alone qualify.

Unofficial backchannel communications, general diplomatic meetings not centered on nuclear issues, or one-sided public proposals will not qualify.

The market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran for combat operations at any point between June 21, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Iran in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Tehran, the Iranian capital, is experiencing a crisis as a historic drought has led the local water supply to run low. You can read more about that here: https://www.newsweek.com/irans-capital-running-dry-in-historic-water-crisis-10987433.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the national government of Iran, the government of Tehran Province, or the government of Tehran Municipality, including the Tehran City Council, orders a major evacuation of the city of Tehran due to the ongoing water crisis by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A major evacuation order is defined as an official government order mandating or instructing a majority of Tehran’s residents to leave the city. The order must explicitly reference the ongoing water shortage or associated infrastructure failure as a primary reason for evacuation to qualify for resolution.

A limited evacuation order affecting only a minority of the residential population of the city of Tehran, or an evacuation order due primarily to reasons other than the ongoing water crisis will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Iranian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?

On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel strike on Gulf State by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either China (People's Republic of China) or Japan formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from either the Chinese or Japanese government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

China x Japan sever diplomatic relations in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the West Bank's soil between November 27, 2025, 3:00 AM IST and the listed date 11:59 PM Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the Israeli military that impact the West Bank's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the West Bank counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the West Bank's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Israeli military will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

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Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

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