Name: Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?
Start: 2025-11-21T19:51:48.275107Z

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The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any AI model listed on the NOF1.ai leaderboard reaches or exceeds $50,000 total account value at any point before the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market.

If every AI model's account value equals zero before reaching $50,000, all will be considered eliminated, and this market may resolve “No” immediately.

If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.

Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?

The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the AI model listed below that shows the highest account value on the NOF1.ai leaderboard (https://nof1.ai/leaderboard) when the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes.

Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the total account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market.

Any AI model whose total account value equals zero before the check time will be considered eliminated and may resolve “No” immediately.

If two or more models are tied for the highest account value at the time of resolution, the tiebreaker will be determined first by the higher Win Rate. If a tie still remains, resolution will be based on the alphabetical order of the models’ company names as listed.

If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.

Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the AI model listed below that shows the lowest total account value on the NOF1.ai leaderboard (https://nof1.ai/leaderboard) when the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes.

Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market.

The first AI model whose account value equals zero before the check time will be considered eliminated and may resolve “Yes” immediately.

If two or more models are tied for the lowest account value at the time of resolution, the tiebreaker will be determined first by the lower Win Rate. If a tie still remains, resolution will be based on the alphabetical order of the models’ company names as listed.

If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.

Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all of the following are true:
- The official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of November 2025 is at least $170. 
- The official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of November 2025 is at least $290. 
- The official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of November 2025 is at least $450. 
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing prices published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing prices are published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade prices of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the "Close" prices for the respective companies available at https://finance.yahoo.com/, published under "Historical Prices."

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

AI Bubble Boom Parlay November

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

The winners of the ARC Prize 2025 are scheduled to be publicly announced on December 5, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any team achieves a score of 85% or higher on the private evaluation set of ARC-AGI-2 with the specified cost per task (CPT) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only scores publicly confirmed by the ARC Prize will qualify.

If ARC Prize does not publicly the relevant data by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be official information from ARC Prize (https://arcprize.org).

Will anyone achieve an ARC-AGI score of 85% or higher with a cost per task below $100?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Defi App trading competition starting on November 10, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Defi App Leaderboard on https://app.defi.app/contest.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Defi App leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Defi App. If no such data becomes available by January 31, 2026 ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Note: The official competition includes a large number of participants, however this market will resolve solely based on the listed group of KOL participants. Traders who are not eligible KOLs will not be considered. An eligible KOL will be considered to have won if they are the top trader out of eligible KOLs, regardless of if one of the non-KOL participants finishes ahead of them.

Will VirtualBacon win the Defi App trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT ads by December 31?

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?

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Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?

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Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?

Order Book

Market Context

Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition?

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