Name: Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?
Start: 2025-11-13T23:20:37.113091Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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On November 9, Trump voiced the idea of a tariff-funded stimulus of about $2,000 per person, paid out of revenue from new import duties. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/10/economy/tariff-rebate-check-proposal-what-to-know

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q3 2025 is higher than Q2 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA

Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q3 2025 release will not be counted.

If all relevant data is not published by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.

US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union imposes any new or increased tariffs on the United States between July 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting the U.S. will qualify. For example, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the EU) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs enacted by EU member states will not count. Only Tariffs imposed by the EU will qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US federal income tax is eliminated between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "abolishing the federal income tax" means the elimination of federal income tax obligations for individuals in the US, not merely reductions, suspensions, or alterations to tax rates, brackets, or enforcement policies. The market will not consider executive orders, temporary measures, or proposals that do not become law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, including announcements from Donald Trump and the IRS, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 (S.1241) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

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Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

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Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

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Market Context

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?

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