Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
$19,709,679 Vol.
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66 37.0%
VVD + CDA + D66 33.2%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66 15.0%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA 5.8%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$430,109 Vol.
37%
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$430,109 Vol.
37%
VVD + CDA + D66
$516,205 Vol.
33%
VVD + CDA + D66
$516,205 Vol.
33%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66
$729,835 Vol.
15%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66
$729,835 Vol.
15%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA
$377,898 Vol.
6%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA
$377,898 Vol.
6%
No Coalition by October 31
$339,873 Vol.
3%
No Coalition by October 31
$339,873 Vol.
3%
CDA + D66
$109,104 Vol.
3%
CDA + D66
$109,104 Vol.
3%
Other
$508,377 Vol.
2%
Other
$508,377 Vol.
2%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21
$883,667 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21
$883,667 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$136,760 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$136,760 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD
$104,780 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD
$104,780 Vol.
<1%
VVD + D66
$171,527 Vol.
<1%
VVD + D66
$171,527 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
$5,686,736 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
$5,686,736 Vol.
<1%
PVV + JA21
$52,167 Vol.
<1%
PVV + JA21
$52,167 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21
$166,799 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21
$166,799 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66
$666,501 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66
$666,501 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD
$750,950 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD
$750,950 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA
$869,753 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA
$869,753 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + D66
$580,285 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + D66
$580,285 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + JA21
$1,083,400 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + JA21
$1,083,400 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$651,086 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$651,086 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA
$425,119 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA
$425,119 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + D66
$22,254 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + D66
$22,254 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
$1,118,400 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
$1,118,400 Vol.
<1%
VVD + JA21
$206,104 Vol.
<1%
VVD + JA21
$206,104 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66
$23,054 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66
$23,054 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA + JA21
$194,088 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA + JA21
$194,088 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA
$465,677 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA
$465,677 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$1,477,935 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$1,477,935 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + CDA
$592,892 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + CDA
$592,892 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA
$367,301 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA
$367,301 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.
If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".
A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.
For example:
If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.
If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".
If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”.
In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.
Volume
$19,709,679
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$19,709,679 Vol.
Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66 37.0%
VVD + CDA + D66 33.2%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66 15.0%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA 5.8%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$430,109 Vol.
37%
VVD + CDA + D66
$516,205 Vol.
33%
GL/PvdA + VVD + D66
$729,835 Vol.
15%
GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA
$377,898 Vol.
6%
No Coalition by October 31
$339,873 Vol.
3%
CDA + D66
$109,104 Vol.
3%
Other
$508,377 Vol.
2%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21
$883,667 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$136,760 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + VVD
$104,780 Vol.
<1%
VVD + D66
$171,527 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA + D66
$5,686,736 Vol.
<1%
PVV + JA21
$52,167 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21
$166,799 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66
$666,501 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD
$750,950 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA
$869,753 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + D66
$580,285 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + JA21
$1,083,400 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66
$651,086 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA
$425,119 Vol.
<1%
PVV + CDA + D66
$22,254 Vol.
<1%
PVV + VVD + CDA + D66
$1,118,400 Vol.
<1%
VVD + JA21
$206,104 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + D66
$23,054 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA + JA21
$194,088 Vol.
<1%
VVD + CDA
$465,677 Vol.
<1%
PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA
$1,477,935 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA + CDA
$592,892 Vol.
<1%
GL/PvdA
$367,301 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$19,709,679
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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