Name: Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?
Start: 2024-12-30T18:15:53.510615Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over which CEOs will be out of their position by December 31, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook is no longer serving as CEO of Apple for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook - Apple

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Clancy is no longer serving as CEO of Twitch for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Dan Clancy's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Twitch and/or Dan Clancy, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Dan Clancy - Twitch

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sundar Pichai is no longer serving as CEO of Google for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sundar Pichai's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Google and/or Sundar Pichai, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Sundar Pichai - Google

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Jassy is no longer serving as CEO of Amazon for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Andy Jassy's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Amazon and/or Andy Jassy, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Andy Jassy - Amazon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong is no longer serving as CEO of Coinbase for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Brian Armstrong's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Coinbase and/or Brian Armstrong, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is no longer serving as CEO of OpenAI for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Sam Altman's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI and/or Sam Altman, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Sam Altman - OpenAI

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?

On July 9, X CEO Linda Yaccarino announced she was stepping down. 

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Linda Yaccarino as CEO of X Corp. by December 31, 2025.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of X.

Interim CEOs will not qualify. 

The resolution source will be public statements from X Corp.

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2025, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025. 

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Tesla.

The resolution source will be public statements from Tesla.

If listed person/thing is named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if listed person is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with any other person or thing which is not named in this market, so long as the term is explicitly named. 

For example, if the Person of the Year is "Donald Trump and the MAGA movement", this would qualify to resolve this market to “Trump”. However if the Person of the Year is "The MAGA movement", this would not qualify to resolve this market to “Trump” regardless of whether Trump is depicted on the cover. 

If two or more people or things which are named in this market are named TIME's Person of the Year, this market will resolve in favor of whichever person or thing is listed first. For example if TIME's Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, the market for Joe Biden would resolve to “Yes” and the market for Kamala Harris would resolve to “No”. 

This market will resolve based on Time's cover. Other Time webpages which differ from the cover will not be considered.

This market can resolve after the 2025 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2025 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: this event is mutually exclusive.



Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025. 

If the above-listed artists are the most streamed Spotify artist for 2025, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2025 is by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Baszucki ceases to be CEO of Roblox for any length of time between August 14, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of David Baszucki's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Roblox and/or David Baszucki, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Julie Masino ceases to be CEO of Cracker Barrel for any length of time between August 24 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Julie Masino's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Cracker Barrel and/or Julie Masino, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Julie Masino out as Cracker Barrel CEO in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search “People” list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ (navigate: Global → Trending → People), where the 2025 page will appear once released (as the 2024 page currently shows the Global “People” ranking).

This market may resolve as soon as the official 2025 data is released for the specified timeframe. If none of the listed options ranks within the Top 5 of the respective list, or if Google does not release the 2025 Year in Search by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as US President
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine President
- Nicolás Maduro out as Venezuela's President
- Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Starmer out as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/WLO1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/WLO2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Sam Altman - OpenAI
$81,028 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Sundar Pichai - Google
$40,311 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Tim Cook - Apple
$43,529 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
$183,366 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
$8,687 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
$173,178 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Rules

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Market Context

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

About

Related

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Sam Altman - OpenAI$81,028 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.1¢buy No98.7¢

Sundar Pichai - Google$40,311 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes3.9¢buy No98.6¢

Tim Cook - Apple$43,529 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes1.7¢buy No98.6¢

Dan Clancy - Twitch$183,366 Vol.4%0123456789%buy Yes4.9¢buy No96.1¢

Andy Jassy - Amazon$8,687 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.9¢buy No98.8¢

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase$173,178 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.4¢buy No98.9¢

Market Context

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Rules

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

Market Context

Which CEOs will be gone in 2025?

About

Related

Sam Altman - OpenAI
$81,028 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Sundar Pichai - Google
$40,311 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Tim Cook - Apple
$43,529 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Dan Clancy - Twitch
$183,366 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Andy Jassy - Amazon
$8,687 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

Brian Armstrong - Coinbase
$173,178 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%