Name: US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?
Start: 2025-11-24T22:25:17.419206Z
End: 2025-11-30T00:00:00Z

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The Trump Administration is considering dropping leaflets on Venezuela in a move to increase pressure on Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. You can read more about that here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-considers-dropping-leaflets-venezuela-maduro/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government intentionally drops leaflets on Venezuelan territory by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The United States government will be considered to have dropped leaflets on Venezuelan territory if it aerially drops any physical object on Venezuelan territory which contains text or information intended to convey a message to Venezuelan citizens on the ground. Digital messages, radio broadcasts, or any non-physical communications will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela as of November 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the territory of Venezuela.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

The Trump Administration is considering dropping leaflets on Venezuela in a move to increase pressure on Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. You can read more about that here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-considers-dropping-leaflets-venezuela-maduro/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government, including the U.S. military, intelligence agencies, or any other entity acting under the authority of the U.S. federal government, intentionally drops leaflets on Venezuelan territory by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The United States government will be considered to have dropped leaflets on Venezuelan territory if it aerially drops any physical object on Venezuelan territory which contains text or information intended to convey a message to Venezuelan citizens on the ground. Digital messages, radio broadcasts, or any non-physical communications will not qualify. The dropping of physically-printed QR codes or other forms of non-text physical communication, however, will count.

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela as of November 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the territory of Venezuela.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

November 30

US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between November 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela. 

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring.

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement.

If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. 

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Nicolás Maduro has left Venezuela for any length of time between November 24, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Maduro may have exited Venezuelan airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Venezuela for this market to resolve to "Yes".

If Maduro exits Venezuela maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Maduro left Venezuela, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Maduro physically entering the terrestrial territory of the United States in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Maduro enters US airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering the United States requires physically entering sovereign U.S. territory, including all U.S. states and territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands). Areas under U.S. control but not under U.S. sovereignty (e.g., Guantánamo Bay Naval Base) do not count. U.S. airspace, U.S. embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute U.S. sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, CIA, or any law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation intended to capture, detain, or take custody of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying operation’s objective must be to capture, imprison, detain, or otherwise take custody of Nicolas Maduro, as confirmed by either the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Direct U.S. personnel participation in an operation which succeeds in capturing Nicolas Maduro will also count, regardless of intention.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. operation to capture Maduro in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is taken into custody by the U.S. government at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Maduro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Maduro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Maduro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Maduro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Maduro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Venezuela by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro talks with Donald Trump between October 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Nigeria by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro physically visits the White House complex in Washington, D.C., for any reason by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The visit must take place on White House grounds. Engagements held elsewhere in Washington, D.C., at other U.S. government facilities, or via virtual platforms do not qualify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro visit the White House in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US strikes Yemen by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Any official announcement signaling a substantial reduction in either military or intelligence aid will qualify, regardless of whether or not the cuts actually occur. 

A qualifying announcement must state an actual decision to cut military or intelligence aid. Conditional, hypothetical, or contingent statements, such as “aid may be cut,” “could be cut,” or “will be cut if…”, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such cuts have occurred will also suffice.

Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Amid rumors of a U.S.-drafted peace framework, a so-called 28-point proposal to end the war with Russia, Zelenskiy is scheduled to meet U.S. Army officials in Kyiv on November 20. More details can be found here: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases a new framework to end the war between Ukraine and Russia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying document must be framed as a new peace proposal outlining specific conditions, for example, regarding reparations, territorial agreements, demilitarization, sanctions, etc.

A mere announcement that such a document exists or will be released will not suffice.

To qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the document or its content to the public. Reports that a qualifying document was provided privately, for example, to Ukrainian officials, will not suffice. 

Partial releases, such as a written summary or outline, will count as long as they are framed as a peace proposal outlining specific conditions.

Leaks or unverified/unofficial information will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Xi visit the US by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using a Tomahawk cruise missiles by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used. 

US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?

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US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?

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US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?

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US drops leaflets on Venezuela by…?

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