Name: Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?
Start: 2025-05-12T23:24:24.659914Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Pakistan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the second individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indonesia president, Prabowo Subianto, is removed from power for any length of time between September 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Prabowo Subianto will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Indonesia within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Subianto out as president of Indonesia in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mahmoud Abbas will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Palestinian National Authority within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Palestinian Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo announces she is resigning as President of Mexico or otherwise ceases to be President of Mexico for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Claudia Sheinbaum or the Government of Mexico, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 ET:

- Trump out as US President
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine President
- Nicolás Maduro out as Venezuela's President
- Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran
- Putin out as President of Russia
- Starmer out as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
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Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of India between November 11 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of November 11, 2025, 11:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by Pakistan, India, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Pakistan invade India in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if India commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Pakistan between May 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by India or Pakistan as of April 23, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by India, Pakistan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will India invade Pakistan in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eyal Zamir announces that he will resign as Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of Eyal Zamir's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

 IDF Chief Eyal  Zamir out by December 31, 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between November 3, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Indian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian territory (e.g., if a Pakistani missile or drone hits a target within India’s borders, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Indian territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Indian soil or causes damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Pakistani ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pakistan strike on India by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between February 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

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Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

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Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

Order Book

Market Context

Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?

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