Portugal Presidential Election

Name: Portugal Presidential Election
Start: 2025-08-29T19:18:28.935224Z
End: 2026-01-25T14:00:00Z

$2,411,814 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 47%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 34%

André Ventura (CH) 10.3%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 6.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$223,121 Vol.
47%
0123456789
%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$109,082 Vol.
34%
0123456789
%

André Ventura (CH)
$240,300 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$119,180 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

António José Seguro (IND)
$90,963 Vol.
4%
0123456789
%

Rui Moreira (IND)
$136,582 Vol.
<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)
$124,568 Vol.
<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)
$79,428 Vol.
<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)
$139,577 Vol.
<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
$92,155 Vol.
<1%

André Pestana (IND)
$108,902 Vol.
<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)
$103,608 Vol.
<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)
$67,352 Vol.
<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)
$78,123 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
$91,402 Vol.
<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)
$93,081 Vol.
<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)
$119,368 Vol.
<1%

António Filipe (PCP)
$80,197 Vol.
<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)
$121,975 Vol.
<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)
$100,540 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
$80,085 Vol.
<1%

Jorge Pinto
$12,225 Vol.
<1%

Rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Volume

$2,411,814

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$2,411,814 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Portugal Presidential Election

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 47%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 34%

André Ventura (CH) 10.3%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 6.1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

$223,121 Vol.

47%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

$109,082 Vol.

34%

André Ventura (CH)

$240,300 Vol.

10%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

$119,180 Vol.

António José Seguro (IND)

$90,963 Vol.

Rui Moreira (IND)

$136,582 Vol.

<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)

$124,568 Vol.

<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)

$79,428 Vol.

<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)

$139,577 Vol.

<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)

$92,155 Vol.

<1%

André Pestana (IND)

$108,902 Vol.

<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)

$103,608 Vol.

<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)

$67,352 Vol.

<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)

$78,123 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)

$91,402 Vol.

<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)

$93,081 Vol.

<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)

$119,368 Vol.

<1%

António Filipe (PCP)

$80,197 Vol.

<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)

$121,975 Vol.

<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)

$100,540 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

$80,085 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Pinto

$12,225 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$2,411,814

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

80%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

50%

Portugal Presidential Election

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$223,121 Vol.
47%
0123456789
%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$109,082 Vol.
34%
0123456789
%

André Ventura (CH)
$240,300 Vol.
10%
0123456789
%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$119,180 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%