Fed decision & dissent combo in December?
NEW
25bp cut, Dissents: >2 54%
25bp cut, Dissents: ≤2 38%
No change, Dissents: ≤2 7.5%
No change, Dissents: >2 5%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
25bp cut, Dissents: >2
$256 Vol.
54%
25bp cut, Dissents: >2
$256 Vol.
54%
25bp cut, Dissents: ≤2
$87 Vol.
38%
25bp cut, Dissents: ≤2
$87 Vol.
38%
No change, Dissents: ≤2
$71 Vol.
8%
No change, Dissents: ≤2
$71 Vol.
8%
No change, Dissents: >2
$131 Vol.
5%
No change, Dissents: >2
$131 Vol.
5%
Other
$641 Vol.
3%
Other
$641 Vol.
3%
Rules
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).
If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.
This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).
If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.
Volume
$1,186
End Date
Dec 12, 2025
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...NEW
Fed decision & dissent combo in December?
25bp cut, Dissents: >2 54%
25bp cut, Dissents: ≤2 38%
No change, Dissents: ≤2 7.5%
No change, Dissents: >2 5%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
25bp cut, Dissents: >2
$256 Vol.
54%
25bp cut, Dissents: ≤2
$87 Vol.
38%
No change, Dissents: ≤2
$71 Vol.
8%
No change, Dissents: >2
$131 Vol.
5%
Other
$641 Vol.
3%
About
Volume
$1,186
End Date
Dec 12, 2025
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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