Name: Atlas global browser market share on December 31?
Start: 2025-10-23T19:06:47.499927Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlas global browser market share is at least the listed percentage on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant data will be sourced from StatCounter Global Stats, utilizing the following settings: Statistic: Browser; Checked: Desktop, Mobile, Tablet, Console; Region: Worldwide; Period: Daily (https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#daily-20251014-20251020).

Only the first released data will be considered; later revisions will not be used. 

If “Atlas” is not explicitly listed under these settings when data for this date is first released, the lowest range bracket will resolve “Yes".

If the data is not reported by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or if the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be selected.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlas global browser market share is at least the listed percentage on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant data will be sourced from StatCounter Global Stats, utilizing the following settings: Statistic: Browser; Checked: Desktop, Mobile, Tablet, Console; Region: Worldwide; Period: Daily (https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#daily-20251014-20251020).

Only the first released data will be considered; later revisions will not be used. 

If "Atlas" is not explicitly listed under these settings when data for this date is first released, this market will resolve to "No".

If the data is not reported by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or if the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be selected.

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlas, the web browser by OpenAI, has a native Windows desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by OpenAI or through official Atlas communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlas, the web browser by OpenAI, has a native iOS application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by OpenAI or through official Atlas communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates in-UI advertisements for companies or features not owned by OpenAI into Atlas, its web browser, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, version, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the specified advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of unique humans displayed on the official World website exceeds 20,000,000 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the official World website, available at https://world.org/, specifically the “Unique humans” figure shown on the homepage.

This market is based solely on the “Unique humans” figure displayed on the official World website (https://world.org/), not on data from third-party analytics dashboards, or unofficial sources.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official World Network figures.

Over 20M humans verified on World Network by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 3,100,000 for any date between November 23, 2025, and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range or on any date before that if the target number is reached within the market timeframe. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025, and onward, prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range, will be considered.

If the target number has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025, to November 30, 2025, by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Perplexity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and Perplexity that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or Perplexity; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Perplexity acquire Chrome in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) during by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PMET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from OpenAI, however a consensus of reputable sources including, major analytics firms (e.g. Similarweb, Sensor Tower), investor or regulatory disclosures, or reputable media may also be used. 

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Is Earth flat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.

Note: If November 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by xAI (or Elon Musk via official xAI/Grok communication channels).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BasedApp's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for BasedApp is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will BasedApp daily builder revenue hit $1M in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:

1.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

2.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

US recession in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask's daily builder revenue is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Flowscan, specifically the "Daily Revenue by Builder" bar chart set on "30D" available at https://www.flowscan.xyz/builders?builder=all

This market will resolve once any daily total revenue for Metamask is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the bar for "31 Dec 2025" is finalized and no bar within the timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value.

The value displayed when hovering over the bar for "Dec 31, 2025" will be considered finalized once any bar for January 1 is published.

Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’25” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in December to the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in November, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).

Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the news topic ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global → Trending → News), where the 2025 page will appear once released (the 2024 page currently shows the Global “News” ranking).

If the listed market topic and Google’s #1 topic are reasonably closely related in ordinary usage, i.e., one is an umbrella for the other, one is a specific sub-event of the other, or they are clear synonyms/aliases (including abbreviations, misspellings, or equivalent phrasing), then it counts for resolution. For example, “Rafah offensive” counts for “Gaza–Israel conflict,” and “U.S. strikes on Iran” counts for “Israel–Iran conflict.” By contrast, distinct contemporaneous topics that merely influence one another do not count for each other unless Google itself lists them as a single combined topic (e.g., “NVIDIA stock plunge” does not count for “DeepSeek R1 launch”).

This market may resolve as soon as the official 2025 data is released for the specified timeframe. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 in the respective list, or if Google does not release the 2025 Year in Search by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Total RWA Value” shown on rwa.xyz is equal to or greater than $50B on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the “Total RWA Value” chart set to “1m”, available at:
https://app.rwa.xyz/

A data point on the rwa.xyz chart is considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

If rwa.xyz becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will RWAs hit $50B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between March 9, and December 31, 2025 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ETH flipped in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

1%+
$17,297 Vol.
4%

3%+
$2,406 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

5%+
$1,029 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

Rules

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

Market Context

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

About

Related

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

1%+$17,297 Vol.4%buy Yes4.2¢buy No96.6¢

3%+$2,406 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.1¢buy No98.3¢

5%+$1,029 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.4¢buy No99.1¢

Market Context

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

Rules

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

Market Context

Atlas global browser market share on December 31?

About

Related

1%+
$17,297 Vol.
4%

3%+
$2,406 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

5%+
$1,029 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%