Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?

$21,880 Vol.

10% chance

Rules

There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.

Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.

The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$21,880

End Date

Dec 31, 2025

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$21,880 Vol.

Market icon

20+ trapped Hamas fighters allowed to leave in 2025?

10% chance

About

There are currently around 200 Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza, separated from the Hamas-controlled portion of Gaza by the “Yellow Line”. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kushner-israel-trapped-hamas-fighters-issue-bedevils-gaza-truce-progress-2025-11-10/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Israel allows 20 or more Hamas fighters trapped in the Israeli-controlled portions of Gaza to leave to areas not under Israeli control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

20 or more Hamas fighters being allowed to leave to Hamas-controlled portions of Gaza, third-party countries, or any other areas not under Israeli control will all qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Transfers to Israeli detention outside of Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.

Escapes, rescues, or other methods of leaving Israeli-controlled Gaza will not count.

The relevant Hamas fighters must be credibly reported to have been allowed to leave Israeli-controlled Gaza within this market’s timeframe. Announcements alone that the fighters will be allowed to leave will not qualify.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$21,880

End Date

Dec 31, 2025